The world changes, this has always been the case, with or without human intervention. What is new in recent years is the frequency and intensity of such changes, marked by sudden leaps - or disruptive transformations - that reshape the socio-economic fabric at an increasingly rapid pace. Dubai is perhaps one of the cities that best embodies this acceleration: within just a few decades, a small trading settlement in the desert has emerged as a global metropolis oriented toward the future.
From Past to Present: The Transformation of Dubai
Dubai has undergone one of the most radical and rapid urban transformations in modern history. Unlike European cities, which evolved over centuries without consistent planning directives, Dubai has experienced a development shaped by a clear and ambitious vision.
In the 1960s, this urban area was little more than a trading settlement along the Creek, with traditional stone houses and mud-brick structures. The discovery of oil in 1966, although in relatively modest quantities compared to its neighbors, provided the initial resources to envision a different future.
The 1990s marked the beginning of Dubai’s true transformation: the construction of iconic buildings such as the Burj Al Arab (completed in 1999), projected the city onto the global stage. What followed was an unprecedented vertical expansion, culminating in the Burj Khalifa (inaugurated in 2010), the tallest building in the world.
Situated along the Persian Gulf, the city has managed to turn geomorphological constraints into opportunities: the vast desert spaces became grounds for daring architectural experimentation, and the sea was reshaped with artificial islands such as Palm Jumeirah and The World. All of this has been driven by a vision in which spectacular urban design serves as a tool for economic diversification.
The Present: Characteristics of Dubai’s Urban Planning
In recent decades, Dubai has already anticipated many urban planning trends that may come to define the cities of the future worldwide, such as:
- Extreme vertical development, with skyscrapers that continually redefine the limits of engineering, design, and architecture. Dubai’s urban planning does not merely respond to functional needs; it also serves as a tool for strategic storytelling, aimed at reinforcing the city’s global identity.
- Creation of large-scale, climate-controlled artificial environments (such as the Dubai Mall), which offer livable spaces regardless of external weather conditions.
- Territorial expansion through desert development and the construction of artificial islands.
- A blend of tradition and ultra-modernity, with historic districts like Al Fahidi existing alongside futuristic developments such as Downtown Dubai.
- A polycentric urban model, already evident in the current city structure and further emphasized by the 2040 Urban Master Plan, which envisions five main interconnected urban centers.
This accelerated development has also revealed several structural, social, and environmental challenges.
The high cost of real estate has rendered housing in the city unaffordable for a significant portion of the working population, fostering a highly segmented urban geography. Despite the modernity of its infrastructure, Dubai exhibits limited use of underground space, particularly in relation to its public transportation network, which remains underdeveloped compared to the city's surface area and the density of daily mobility flows.
Another critical issue is spatial dilution: the city is spread out and fragmented into functionally specialized clusters that are often poorly connected, resulting in a strong dependence on private transportation. This has significant implications for both environmental and social sustainability, despite growing investments in sustainable mobility.
Looking to the future, Dubai appears determined to redefine its urban model through the 2040 Urban Master Plan, a strategy for sustainable urban development that aspires to make Dubai “the best city in the world to live in” by 2040. The plan envisions a substantial expansion of green and recreational areas, which will double in size, with nature reserves and rural zones accounting for 60% of the emirate’s territory. Additionally, the length of public beaches is set to increase by 400%, improving access to the coastline, which has so far been largely privatized by tourism development.
The plan also focuses on improving resource efficiency and fostering vibrant, inclusive communities. Five main urban centers will be developed, Deira and Bur Dubai, Downtown and Business Bay, Dubai Marina and JBR, alongside two new hubs: the Expo 2020 Centre and Dubai Silicon Oasis Centre. These will be connected by green corridors designed to support sustainable mobility, including pedestrian and cycling paths.
As for transportation, the plan aims to provide flexible and sustainable mobility solutions, reducing travel times and enhancing the quality of life for commuters. It is expected that 55% of the population will live within 800 meters of a public transport stop, facilitating access to services and infrastructure.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Envisioning Dubai’s Urban Future
Artificial intelligence systems can play a pivotal role in imagining how Dubai’s urban landscape might evolve in the coming decades. This exercise begins by articulating several hypotheses about the dynamics likely to shape urban environments over the next century.
Hypothesis 1: Urban Planning and Land Use
Dubai has already demonstrated a strong inclination toward ambitious urban planning. In the coming decades, we may witness further densification, but with greater attention to livability. The city is expected to promote more efficient resource management, essential in a desert environment where water is scarce and summer temperatures are extreme. Urban hubs will adopt vertically layered planning, incorporating both passive and active revolutionary cooling systems.
Functional spaces will become increasingly integrated and versatile, allowing for seamless transitions between professional, residential, familial, and recreational areas. The creation of green oases, parks, and recreational zones will be fully embedded in urban planning, supported by advanced water-saving technologies.
The surrounding desert will no longer be viewed merely as land to be developed, but as a resource to be integrated into the urban fabric—creating a natural transition between the city and its desert environment.
Hypothesis 2: Energy Balances
Dubai has made significant investments in renewable energy, such as the Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park. In the future, buildings will be self-sustaining, with solar panels integrated into façades. The desert heat, currently a major challenge, will be transformed into an energy asset through advanced systems of thermal storage and conversion.
Energy sources will become increasingly decentralized and distributed, enhancing the resilience and stability of the energy grid. This will be crucial in a context where nearly all services and infrastructure depend on reliable electricity. Dubai’s experience in complex systems engineering may position it as a laboratory for technologies exportable to other extreme environments, including future space colonies.
Hypothesis 3: Mobility and Underground Development
Although Dubai has invested in public transportation infrastructure, mobility challenges will continue to evolve. Infrastructure is expected to increasingly shift underground, enabling the expansion of transit networks while shielding users from extreme heat. The Dubai Metro will grow into a system that connects every corner of the city. Technologies such as the Hyperloop may link Dubai with Abu Dhabi and other Emirati cities in mere minutes, effectively creating a mega-urban region.
Above ground, transportation will be dominated by shared autonomous vehicles, dramatically reducing the need for parking and wide roadways. This will allow for the reclamation of urban space for pedestrian pathways and green interstitial areas.
Hypothesis 4: Coexistence of Historic and New Urban Districts
The contrast between old and new is already a defining feature of Dubai. Historic neighborhoods like Al Fahidi and the areas along Dubai Creek will be further enhanced as cultural heritage sites, creating a striking juxtaposition with futuristic districts.
New developments will no longer expand solely outward into the desert but will be incorporated into multi-level vertical structures that accommodate entire communities. Palm Jumeirah and other artificial islands will evolve into self-sufficient urban ecosystems with dedicated transportation systems and infrastructure.
To mitigate desert climate conditions, Dubai may develop entire sections of the city enclosed under climate-controlled domes, creating year-round comfortable environments through sustainable cooling technologies.
Hypothesis 5: Social Relations and the Evolution of the Smart City
With a cosmopolitan population of over 200 nationalities, Dubai serves as a unique social laboratory. Public squares, archetypal spaces for gathering, will become even more vital as places of convergence and interaction for an increasingly diverse population.
Technology will be ever more pervasive yet invisible, with AI systems facilitating daily life: from optimizing traffic flows to managing energy consumption. The smart city will have a 24/7 metabolism, always on, always active.
Dubai could emerge as a global city-state, with economic and cultural influence extending beyond that of the United Arab Emirates as a whole. Diverse cultural identities will continue to coexist, but with greater integration and exchange—enabled by real-time translation technologies that dissolve linguistic and cultural barriers.
Hypothesis 6: Architecture and Urban Design of the Future
Skyscrapers will become true vertical cities, with suspended bridges connecting structures at various heights, creating a fully three-dimensional urban landscape. New bio-compatible and adaptive materials will enable the construction of buildings that change form and function in response to user needs and environmental conditions.
Green integration will become more sophisticated, featuring vertical forests adapted to desert climates and hydroponic systems embedded within buildings. Advances in 3D printing will allow for architectural forms previously deemed impossible, fostering a new urban aesthetic.
From Hypotheses to Glimpses of the Future
Based on the hypotheses outlined above, a series of images was generated using DALL·E and Midjourney: https://rhpositive.net/index.php/foto/6-scorci-di-futuro-dubai
Example of a Midjourney Prompt:
Cinematic realistic photograph of Dubai in 2125, with its authentic topography::4; Burj Khalifa and Palm Jumeirah visible but dwarfed by new structures::2; densely vertical city, integrating office, residential and commercial areas; verdant desert-adapted gardens and green zones bridging various sectors; absence of traditional roads, replaced by elevated pedestrian walkways; buildings interconnected at multiple levels; citizens promenading on aerial paths; traditional souks and heritage areas preserved and enclosed within climate-controlled domes; central artistic plazas with water features; towering bio-inspired skyscrapers. Captured with Canon EF 24-70mm f/2.8L II USM lens at 35mm, ISO 100, f/8, 1/200s --ar 16:9 --iw 1.9
Conclusion: Dubai as an Urban Laboratory
More than most cities, Dubai has the potential to become a true urban laboratory of the future. Its ability to execute ambitious projects in a short timeframe, combined with the availability of substantial investment resources, makes it a unique environment for testing innovative urban solutions.
The challenges Dubai faces, from extreme climate conditions to the need for post-oil economic diversification, could be transformed into opportunities for innovation with global implications. The solutions developed to make a metropolis livable in the desert may offer valuable lessons for other cities confronting climatic challenges.
While Dubai’s past has been marked by rapid and often unsustainable expansion, its future may be defined by a more mature approach—one that balances architectural ambition with social and environmental sustainability.
Predicting the future is easy; the challenge lies in identifying the predictions that may actually come to pass. Dubai has already shown its ability to turn seemingly utopian visions into concrete realities. In this sense, perhaps more than any other city, Dubai is positioned not merely to adapt to global urban trends, but to actively shape its own urban future.
In this process, artificial intelligence will not only serve as a tool for imagining what lies ahead, it will become an integral part of the city’s everyday operations, making Dubai increasingly intelligent, responsive, and, one hopes, sustainable.
Roland Hochstrasser, geographer
April 2025
