Lomborg, Airplanes

Airplanes have become another battleground in the climate wars. Because of the large carbon footprint of air travel, environmental groups are increasingly pushing to make us feel “flight shame”—guilt for the carbon emissions produced anytime we fly. This is a troubling movement. (...)

Even if we were willing to sacrifice all of these things, staying off airplanes would not have the dramatic impact on climate change we might imagine. Even if every single one of the 4.5 billion people getting on any flight this year stayed on the ground, and the same happened every year until 2100, the rise in temperatures would be reduced by just 0.05°F, equivalent to delaying climate change by less than one year by 2100.

Lomborg, Bjørn. 2021. False Alarm: How Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the Planet. First trade paperback edition. New York: Basic Books.

Good, ultraintelligent machine

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an 'intelligence explosion,' and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.

Good, Irving John. 1965. «Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine». Advances in Computers 6.

Dyson, Futurologia

Non sono un cultore di quella pseudoscienza chiamata futurologia, negli ultimi tempi assurta a professione, che cerca di fare previsioni quantitative sull’immediato futuro estrapolando curve di tendenza dal presente e dal recente passato. A lunga scadenza, i cambiamenti qualitativi superano sempre quelli quantitativi. Le previsioni quantitative di tendenze economiche e sociali invecchiano rapidamente, perché intervengono cambiamenti qualitativi nelle regole del gioco. Le previsioni quantitative di progressi tecnologici vengono cancellate dalla comparsa di nuove e imprevedibili invenzioni. A me interessa lo sguardo lungo, il remoto futuro, dove le previsioni quantitative non hanno significato. L’unica certezza che possiamo avere su quel lontano futuro è che accadranno cose radicalmente nuove. L'unico modo per esplorarlo è quello di usare la nostra immaginazione.

Dyson, Freeman J. Turbare l’universo. Nuova ed. accresciuta. Torino: Bollati Boringhieri, 2010.